GFS 0z builds a ridge for the latter part of next weekend into early next week before the Atlantic tries to invade in against a block of high pressure over Scandinavia. The low pressure cannot get much further eastwards than the north and west and as a result, they just get pushed northwards. Looks fairly warm.
GFS 06z squeezes out the low pressure on Friday/Saturday then a little ridge (like the 0z) builds in bringing warmer and drier conditions again for a time before a return to westerlies but at the very end, high pressure builds over us again.
ECM builds a ridge of high pressure bringing more very warm air (see the 850hPa and thickness charts below) then everything becomes slack but staying warm at the end of its run. Over three consecutive runs or so now that this has been shown by the model.
ECM clusters have all gone to the warm or hot scenario but unlike Summer so far, this high looks further eastwards with low pressure in the Atlantic. This would mean that we would have some very hot days developing for some especially in the UK and if the low invades from the Atlantic after these hot interludes, we might start thinking about thunderstorms.
