I'm going to begin doing a forecast contest. At the end of each month, the winner will be given a certificate like the one below created using awardbox.com. It's all for a bit of fun. Will Mother Nature be nice or mean with you as you make your predictions?
The data you have to predict for the month to enter the contest is:
1. The Central England Temperature for the month the contest is set.
2. The England & Wales Precipitation for the month the contest is set.
3. The absolute maximum air temperature that the UK OR Ireland will reach during the month which the contest is set.
4. The absolute minimum air temperature that the UK OR Ireland will reach during the month which the contest is set.
You must enter via the comments on the blog post for the forecast contest when I issue it to let you know that the contest is open for entries. Alternatively, you can also enter via my Twitter @BruenSryan.
Scoring works as follows:
1. Central England Temperature
10 points - Your prediction is bang on the exact figure that the month ended up with.
9 points - Your prediction differs by 0.1°C below/above the actual figure the month ended up with.
8 points - Your prediction differs by 0.2°C below/above the actual figure the month ended up with.
5 points - Your prediction differs by 0.3°C to 0.5°C below/above the actual figure the month ended up with.
2 points - Your prediction differs by 0.6°C to 0.9°C below/above the actual figure the month ended up with.
1 point - Your prediction differs by 1.0°C or more below/above the actual figure the month ended up with.
For example, let's say your CET prediction for June 2018 was 16.4°C. The actual June 2018 was 16.1°C so with a difference of 0.3°C, you receive 5 points.
2. England & Wales Precipitation
10 points - Your prediction is either bang on the exact figure or within 5.0mm of the actual figure.
5 points - Your prediction differs from the actual figure by 5.1 to 15.0mm.
1 point - Your prediction differs from the actual figure by more than 15.0mm.
3. Absolute maximum air temperature
10 points - Your prediction is either bang on the exact figure or if the actual figure rounds up to your prediction.
5 points - Your prediction differs from the actual figure by 1.0°C to 2.0°C.
1 point - Your prediction differs from the actual figure by more than 2.0°C.
4. Absolute minimum air temperature
10 points - Your prediction is either bang on the exact figure or if the actual figure rounds up to your prediction.
5 points - Your prediction differs from the actual figure by 1.0°C to 2.0°C.
1 point - Your prediction differs from the actual figure by more than 2.0°C.
When entering the contest, please do your predictions in the following format:
1. (CET)
2. (EWP)
3. (Maximum)
4. (Minimum)
Make sure to put the right figures in the right place please, it makes organising entries easier. All your entries will be averaged into one entry called Consensus whom will take part in the contest too along with every one of you.
With all the above taken into consideration, it's time to begin the first Sryan Bruen Forecast Contest. Forecast the elements for August 2018 now. Deadline for entries is Thursday, August 2nd.
The 1981-2010 average CET for August is 16.4°C. The 1981-2010 average EWP for August is 75.6mm.
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