Previously we looked at the Winters that followed on from Junes with a QBO of -20 or less because June 2018's QBO was -28.45 showing it was very easterly. In this blog post, we're going to be looking at the Autumns instead that followed on from these Junes.
These Autumns overall look mixed with below average heights over the Norwegian Sea with above average heights over Russia and in the Atlantic backing into North America and parts of Ireland. This chart signals fairly settled (away from the northeast of the UK) but maybe quite cool conditions. There lies some month to month variation though and some of these Autumns are very different from each other like there's literally no comparison with say 1994 and 2005.
The Septembers look similar to the above reanalysis for Autumn overall but more influence from the jet stream and below average heights to the east of the UK. This reanalysis is kinda similar to September 1995 which was very wet and cool to the east of the UK whilst the west was more settled with close to average temperatures. The difference with this reanalysis being that the jet stream is in a northwest to southeast trajectory instead of a north to south trajectory which September 1995 had. Nevertheless, both look similar to each other and I'd expect similar conditions though not as wet in the east as September 1995 was.
The Octobers look exceptionally mild with wetter than average conditions out west but very dry to the east where above average heights sit. Kind of the reverse of the September reanalysis above but also much milder.
The Novembers are very very surprising to me with deep below average heights over Scandinavia and above average heights in the Atlantic up to Greenland drawing down a northerly wind. Looks very cold and relatively unsettled. Looking at the individual Novembers, there are some cold ones in there like 2005, 2010 and 2012 but there is also exceptionally mild and wet ones like 1963 and 1994 - the latter being the warmest November on record.
Overall, quite a mixed bag this analogue is and like the backloaded Springs one, I'm not really happy with this analogue because it's very different to many we've looked at. I do not see the November solution coming off but September and October's ones are likely if you ask me. Next Autumn 2018 analogue, which will be with you probably tomorrow, will be looking at Julys with a QBO of -20 or less.