This blog post is going to be about the seventh analogue I have picked for Winter 2018-19 and it is on Winters that followed on from "backloaded Springs". If you do not know what this means, it means Spring gets progressively warmer and drier after a very wet and or cool start. Spring 2018 was exactly this, March was one of the wettest on record and the coldest since 2013. April was very wet for many too but became much warmer than March whilst May was a very warm, dry and sunny month. A perfect textbook example of a backloaded Spring.
The 500mb height anomaly reanalysis of the Winters overall looks very odd with deep troughs over the Arctic Circle but also over the Azores into the Mediterranean with a split ridge of high pressure in the mid-Atlantic and over central Europe. I don't know what this setup would bring because it's so strange but it looks fairly changeable maybe?
The Decembers of these Winters overall look quite chilly but due to average heights over the British Isles, it's hard to say if it'd be settled or snowy. The below average heights over the Arctic Circle should normally make it difficult for cold to happen but there's a weak North Atlantic ridge.
The Januaries look very cyclonic with a powerful Atlantic jet stream but maybe some opportunities for cold zonality sometimes due to how the high pressure is aligned over the eastern seaboard of North America and the below average heights over us?
The Februaries look nearly identical to the overall Winter reanalysis, fairly quiet with not a lot going on over the British Isles but maybe some changeable weather at times due to the dip in the jet stream (noted by the average heights).
I'm not particularly happy with this analogue as it's very odd and different to anything I've seen. It's pretty much the black sheep of the analogues right now for Winter 2018-19.