For the next analogue of Autumn 2018, I will be looking at Autumns that followed on from hot Summers because it is now certain that Summer 2018 will end up somewhere within the hottest Summers on record even if August 2018 ends out average temperature wise.
For this analogue, I have decided to look at the individual months too as well as the full Autumn season in one reanalysis.
The 500mb height anomaly reanalysis of these Autumns as a whole shows a very anticyclonic setup with a blocking area of high pressure over us just to the east drawing in a southeasterly flow from Europe meaning it'd be quite a warm Autumn too.
The 500mb height anomaly reanalysis for the Septembers of these Autumns looks even more anticyclonic with a block of high pressure right over top of the country. There is a deep trough over Greenland which only promotes this high. Temperatures not particularly high as the wind is a variable direction but it would be relatively mild.
The 500mb height anomaly reanalysis for the Octobers of these Autumns also looks very anticyclonic but the high pressure is more anchored just to the northwest with a trough to the east of Europe. It'd be an average temperature October but continuing the very dry scenario.
The 500mb height anomaly reanalysis for the Novembers of these Autumns look mild to maybe even very mild at times with a trough to the southwest of the country. The north and east would be relatively settled but elsewhere, quite a wet month by the looks of things. If the trough were to align differently to the south of England and high pressure builds over Scandinavia backing into Iceland then it'd be a cold scenario.
Besides November, this analogue isn't really special for its temperatures (thus why I haven't made a table of CETs for this analogue) but how dry it is up to November. September and October look extremely dry. If they were to verify for September and October 2018, we'd be in national emergency continuing on from the exceptional dry period that began in May 2018. Fortunately, this is one of the first Autumn analogues that shows some settled weather as the others have been on the unsettled side. Plenty more analogues to come before we can decide on some final Autumn 2018 thoughts!