I did the fourth analogue for Winter 2018-19 on very dry Junes and the Winters that followed them so it was only a matter of time before I did an Autumn counterpart to this. This is what the blog post is going to be about. The 500mb height anomaly reanalysis looks very unsettled for Autumn but with Greenland blocking. The way the trough is aligned looks to me like that by November, we'd be thinking of a very snowy and cold scenario. I gave the November 2010 reanalysis to compare. Look quite similar!
This quick table of Central England Temperatures (CETs) for each of the Autumns in the analogue prove what I said with a wet but cool Autumn signal with very cold conditions possible by November. The difference row is the anomaly of the mean of these Autumns from their 1981-2010 averages, for example, November's mean in this analogue is 5.9c which comes to -1.2c below the 1981-2010 average. Just look at all those cold Novembers in there including the second coldest on record ever for the CET - 1915 with a CET of 2.8c.
So far, the Autumn 2018 analogues have been unsettled with differences on temperature. The models are suggesting a warm and dry Autumn which I'm quite dubious about at this stage.
