I showed people a strange weather quirk previously on Summers ending in "8" and it was that there was not a hotter than average Summer ending in "8" before 2018 since 1868. However, as 2018 proved, this is just a strange weather quirk and a coincidence than anything else. I thought it'd be fun to look at the Autumns ending in "8" for analogue #14 here.
The 500mb height anomaly reanalysis for these Autumns in contrast to Summers ending in "8" looks anticyclonic with a lot of above average heights to the north and over us. Saying that, the above average heights look fairly weak. The alignment of the heights show easterly winds would be dominant which at the beginning of Autumn would be very warm but quickly cooling as the season goes on. By November, easterly winds would be bitterly cold. Given how Summer 2018 has been totally the opposite of what Summers ending in "8" showed, it would be amusing for Autumn 2018 to be the opposite of this analogue. I think there's a reasonably high likelihood for that to happen!
The 500mb height anomaly reanalysis for the Septembers has the Greenland blocking but there are below average heights over us giving a cold and wet signal.
The 500mb height anomaly reanalysis of the Octobers shows above average heights near the UK and Ireland if anchored just to the west. There are below average heights over Scandinavia and the Mediterranean. It looks like a very quiet month with not a lot going on. Maybe on the fairly cool side as the wind would be from a northwesterly to a northerly.
The 500mb height anomaly reanalysis of the Novembers looks similar to the Autumns overall but the above average heights are more over us than to the north. Nevertheless, it would open the doors to potential for easterly winds and looks anticyclonic. I don't think this is a very likely scenario for November 2018 at all.
Comments