To continue the trend of looking at seasons ending in the same number(s) as the current year, for analogue #10 we're going to be looking at the Winters ending in "8"/"9". Yes, we're looking at a Winter analogue today for a change because I understand the hype going on right now surrounding it given teleconnections like solar minimum or the fact 2017/18 left us on a bit of a cliffhanger.
The 500mb height anomaly reanalysis below of these Winters going back to 1851 shows below average heights over much of Europe including the UK and Ireland with its centre to the southwest. Meanwhile, there is above average heights over Greenland and the Norwegian Sea over to Russia. The jet stream is on a southerly track and to me, it looks like an unsettled Winter with mild and cold interludes because due to the alignment of the heights, it's somewhat a knife edge. I would think that there'd be multiple opportunities of cold spells in this scenario especially with easterly winds. You will find a clear difference in the month by month break down of this analogue.
The 500mb height anomaly reanalysis for December shows above average heights over Greenland and to the northeast of Scandinavia but they're too far away to really affect the weather of the British Isles. There is above average heights over the Azores too meanwhile well below average heights over the eastern US and going across the Atlantic into the UK and Ireland. Very unsettled and mild chart indeed. Looks identical to Winter 2013-14 in many ways. I will leave the disclaimer though that the Decembers here are very different from each other like 2008 was cold, dry and frosty whilst 1998 was very mild, dull and wet and another different December being 1878 which was exceptionally snowy and cold.
In contrast to the December reanalysis above, January has very stubborn northern blocking all around northern Europe with below average heights over the Azores and the mediterranean. Looks extremely cold and snowy with a lot of potential for northeasterly or easterly winds. Very different to December.
The 500mb height anomaly reanalysis looks really strange with average heights over the very North Atlantic and much of the British Isles. Meanwhile, there is below average heights over the Arctic, southeastern England and southern Europe. This to me either suggests weak above average heights to the northwest bringing down a northeasterly flow but quite changeable or the Februaries are very different from each other. I'm kinda leaning to the latter but there are some cold Februaries in there like 1969 which was very cold (and quite forgotten), 2009 whilst average overall had a very snowy and cold first half.
Interesting analogue overall, a mild and wet December, a cold and snowy January and an indifferent February.
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